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Studies suggest that by the year 2100, 40% of the world’s population will reside in Africa. People in Africa are becoming the world’s number one resource as we become increasingly global and geographical boundaries are less of a barrier. The most important question is, how well are we identifying and mobilising talent in Africa?
Success stories out of Africa are increasingly common, but what they all have in common is that they were contingent on circumstances, on someone recognising the talent in a young person or in the person chancing upon their passion. This talent could however easily have been lost to the world. By better managing talent and having these contingencies fall in the right direction, the potential that abounds in Africa can be more effectively harnessed.
Tyler Cowen, renowned economist and author of several best-selling books, including ‘Talent: How to Identify Energizers, Creatives and Winners’, spoke on the topic of Talent and the Future of Africa at the 2024 RMB Think Summit. His address highlighted the potential of African talent in the global future and the importance of mobilising it, alongside the need to emphasise what makes us human in a world where AI is becoming better at doing many tasks than people.
“The pool of available talent is higher than it has ever been before, and it is growing almost everywhere in the world. While there is no guarantee things will go well, you are always in the game, there is always hope,” he says.
Most countries do well at identifying talent in areas where it is visible, such as in sports. The challenge is that most talent is not visible, especially at a young age. As a result, talented individuals often do not get the futures, the coaching and mentoring they deserve, nor the schooling, attention or funding they need to realise their talent. To foster talent in Africa, we need to start considering all areas and treating them with the same level of attention as we do with sports.
“Talent is everything,” says Cowen. “Talent represents about 80% of American wealth - not the infrastructure nor the factories or anything else, but human talent. If something represents 80% of your wealth, you should take it seriously. Human capital will become relatively more important over time, because the world is changing more rapidly – when big things are happening, individuals matter more.”
The importance of talent is highlighted by the recent successes of tech companies. For example, the breakthrough that led to the creation of ChatGPT and GPT-4 was made by a handful of people in a company of just over 200 employees. When AI-powered image creation tool Midjourney was put onto the market, they had just eight employees. The reach and power of individual talent is becoming more important – what economists call intangible capital – and our world is changing rapidly in the direction of talent.
When it comes to the question of how to retain talent, Cowen highlights that this is incredibly context-specific, but that the issue of losing talented people is a global phenomenon and that most countries do not suffer from as much brain drain as they think. While countries with larger populations may lose talented people to other countries, this often motivates others to rise up and take their place, so the second order effects are largely positive as the supply of talent is elastic.
“Retention isn’t easy – there are always opportunities elsewhere, but the more talent you send abroad, the more talent you will sprout at home,” he says.
“Average is over. People who are determined and well trained and conscientious and smart will do better than before. Returns to quality are rising. The higher the returns to quality, the more important it is to identify, mobilise, attract and retain talent,” he adds.
The rise of AI makes human talent even more important. If you are competing with technology, rather than using it to augment your value, you need to adjust, because the power of technology is only going to continue to grow. Economies need to reallocate resources to handle the radical shifts we are seeing – this is not some hypothetical future, but the reality of the world today. Individuals who can seize the initiative and work with AI to experiment, iterate more quickly and test ideas in the marketplace. This will accelerate the rate of change, not only in areas like medicine, mathematics, and programming, but in every area from poetry and music, to business leadership and economics.
“The new world is very daunting. One big thing everyone should do is to invest more in networks. If you are out there and building a network, if you can credibly recommend the talents of others. You are extraordinarily valuable in this new world because you have access to the talents of others. In this new world, charisma matters more, extroversion matters more. Be more human, don’t try to compete with technology. What makes us uniquely human? Emotion, communication, leadership, passion, charisma. That’s why it is critical to have talent in this new world,” Cowen concludes.